Description
By (author) Spiegelhalter David
:
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
Review quote:
National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a
thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of the unknown
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Delightful…
a coup… an
invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from
a master of the craft… [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is
universal
Review quote:
One of Britain’s
most eminent statisticians… [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of cancer… A
useful and
persuasive account that gets us to recognise, understand and ultimately accept uncertainty
Review quote:
Timely… the
distinguished statistician shows how simple arithmetic can impose order on the risks that are an integral part of life…
One of academia’s best communicators.. this book.. impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction and creative obfuscation
Review quote:
This is, without doubt,
the most beautifully crafted book of its kind. These pages are rich with stories from
50 years of hard earned wisdom, each packed with insight and
bursting with wit and warmth. When put together there is an important and compelling narrative about uncertainty here, this is
a book that challenges our assumptions and offers
new perspectives on how to embrace it
Review quote:
David Spiegelhalter is
a national treasure, and this might be his
wisest, most humane and most personal book.
I urge you to read it
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A
superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations
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The Art of Uncertainty
contains a lifetime of wisdom
from a true master. No one else can do what David Spiegelhalter does, and take this foggiest but most ubiquitous of human problems, then give it such
order, rigour, and impeccable judgement. There’s science, philosophy, medicine, statistics… life… all wrapped in a light and human touch, with
one-line insights to di
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